The CFP race

12 teams with the highest individual playoff chances. This is not a projected field or bracket.

TeamMake CFP

#1Ohio State9–0>99%#2Indiana10–0>99%#3Texas A&M9–096%#4Alabama8–187%#5Georgia8–182%#6Texas Tech9–181%#7Ole Miss9–174%#9Notre Dame7–270%#8Oregon8–165%#10Texas7–248%#13Utah7–246%#11Oklahoma7–239%

#5Georgia8–1 · SEC▼ −2pp82%

#6Texas Tech9–1 · Big 12▲ +12pp81%

#7Ole Miss9–1 · SEC▼ −3pp74%

#9Notre Dame7–2 · FBS Independents▼ −2pp70%

#8Oregon8–1 · Big Ten▼ −3pp65%

#10Texas7–2 · SEC▲ +7pp48%

#13Utah7–2 · Big 1246%

#11Oklahoma7–2 · SEC▲ +7pp39%

James Madison8–1 · Sun Belt35%

#24South Florida7–2 · American Athletic▲ +19pp33%

#12BYU8–1 · Big 12▼ −19pp30%

#14Vanderbilt8–2 · SEC▲ +17pp27%

North Texas8–1 · American Athletic▲ +4pp25%

#15Miami7–2 · ACC▲ +13pp25%

SMU7–3 · ACC▲ +12pp23%

#16Georgia Tech8–1 · ACC▲ +7pp20%

…

… · ABC

#9Notre Dameat#22Pittsburgh

Final · #9 Notre Dame 37–15 #22 Pittsburgh

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… · ABC

#10Texasat#5Georgia

Final · #10 Texas 10–35 #5 Georgia

…

… · ESPN

Floridaat#7Ole Miss

Final · Florida 24–34 #7 Ole Miss

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… · ABC

#11Oklahomaat#4Alabama

Final · #11 Oklahoma 23–21 #4 Alabama

…

… · ESPN2

#13UtahatBaylor

Final · #13 Utah 55–28 Baylor

…

… · ESPN2

#24South FloridaatNavy

Final · #24 South Florida 38–41 Navy

…

… · ESPN2

#19VirginiaatDuke

Final · #19 Virginia 34–17 Duke

…

… · ESPN

TCUat#12BYU

Final · TCU 13–44 #12 BYU

…

… · BTN

#21Iowaat#17USC

Final · #21 Iowa 21–26 #17 USC

…

… · FOX

Minnesotaat#8Oregon

Final · Minnesota 13–42 #8 Oregon

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.