The CFP race

12 teams with the highest individual playoff chances. This is not a projected field or bracket.

TeamMake CFP

#2Penn State2–098%#8Notre Dame0–197%#1Ohio State2–097%#6Georgia2–091%#4Oregon2–089%#7Texas1–168%#3LSU2–057%#5Miami2–054%#17Ole Miss2–041%#19Alabama1–138%USC2–024%#15Tennessee2–021%

#7Texas1–1 · SEC▲ +8pp68%

#3LSU2–0 · SEC▼ −2pp57%

#5Miami2–0 · ACC▲ +4pp54%

#17Ole Miss2–0 · SEC▼ −12pp41%

#19Alabama1–1 · SEC▲ +21pp38%

USC2–0 · Big Ten▼ −1pp24%

#15Tennessee2–0 · SEC▼ −1pp21%

#22Indiana2–0 · Big Ten▲ +2pp21%

#12Clemson1–1 · ACC▼ −9pp20%

Louisville2–0 · ACC▲ +2pp20%

#11South Carolina2–0 · SEC▼ −5pp19%

Jacksonville State1–1 · Conference USA18%

TCU1–0 · Big 12▼ −1pp18%

#9Illinois2–0 · Big Ten▲ +11pp17%

SMU1–1 · ACC▼ −7pp16%

…

… · ABC

#6Georgiaat#15Tennessee

Final · #6 Georgia 44–41 #15 Tennessee

…

… · The CW Network

#18South Floridaat#5Miami

Final · #18 South Florida 12–49 #5 Miami

…

… · ESPN

Arkansasat#17Ole Miss

Final · Arkansas 35–41 #17 Ole Miss

…

… · NBC

#16Texas A&Mat#8Notre Dame

Final · #16 Texas A&M 41–40 #8 Notre Dame

…

… · ABC

Floridaat#3LSU

Final · Florida 10–20 #3 LSU

…

… · ESPN

#12ClemsonatGeorgia Tech

Final · #12 Clemson 21–24 Georgia Tech

…

… · ABC

Wisconsinat#19Alabama

Final · Wisconsin 14–38 #19 Alabama

…

… · Peacock

Ohioat#1Ohio State

Final · Ohio 9–37 #1 Ohio State

…

… · SEC Network

Vanderbiltat#11South Carolina

Final · Vanderbilt 31–7 #11 South Carolina

…

… · TNT

Texas StateatArizona State

Final · Texas State 15–34 Arizona State

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 3). How the model works.