The American Athletic race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 3 · 2025
13 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 3; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Navy | 1–0 | 2–0 | 5.9–2.1 | 27% | 12% | 3% |
 UAB | 0–1 | 1–1 | 2.9–5.1 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Tulane | 0–0 | 2–0 | 6.1–1.9 | 44% | 26% | 14% |
 Memphis | 0–0 | 2–0 | 6.0–2.0 | 42% | 23% | 12% |
 Army | 0–0 | 1–1 | 6.0–2.0 | 34% | 18% | 9% |
 #18South Florida | 0–0 | 2–0 | 5.4–2.6 | 33% | 15% | 9% |
 UTSA | 0–0 | 0–2 | 4.7–3.3 | 11% | 4% | 1% |
 East Carolina | 0–0 | 1–1 | 4.2–3.8 | 4% | 1% | <1% |
 North Texas | 0–0 | 2–0 | 4.0–4.0 | 4% | <1% | <1% |
 Temple | 0–0 | 2–0 | 2.8–5.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Rice | 0–0 | 1–1 | 2.7–5.3 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Florida Atlantic | 0–0 | 1–1 | 2.4–5.6 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Charlotte | 0–0 | 0–2 | 1.9–6.1 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Tulsa | 0–0 | 1–1 | 1.0–7.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 3). How the model works.