The American Athletic race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2025
13 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 5; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 North Texas | 1–0 | 4–0 | 6.5–1.5 | 50% | 24% | 10% |
 Navy | 2–0 | 3–0 | 5.9–2.1 | 25% | 11% | 3% |
 Rice | 1–0 | 3–1 | 3.2–4.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Army | 0–1 | 1–2 | 5.1–2.9 | 15% | 8% | 4% |
 UAB | 0–1 | 2–2 | 2.4–5.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Charlotte | 0–1 | 1–3 | 1.3–6.7 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 Tulsa | 0–1 | 2–2 | 1.2–6.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Memphis | 0–0 | 4–0 | 6.4–1.6 | 59% | 36% | 20% |
 Tulane | 0–0 | 3–1 | 5.7–2.3 | 28% | 13% | 5% |
 UTSA | 0–0 | 2–2 | 4.6–3.4 | 9% | 3% | 1% |
 East Carolina | 0–0 | 2–2 | 4.8–3.2 | 8% | 3% | <1% |
 South Florida | 0–0 | 3–1 | 4.5–3.5 | 6% | 2% | <1% |
 Temple | 0–0 | 2–2 | 2.0–6.0 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Florida Atlantic | 0–0 | 1–2 | 2.4–5.6 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.