The American Athletic race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 8 · 2025
10 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 8; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #22Memphis | 2–0 | 6–0 | 6.8–1.2 | 76% | 51% | 37% |
 #19South Florida | 2–0 | 5–1 | 6.1–1.9 | 51% | 22% | 17% |
 Tulane | 2–0 | 5–1 | 5.9–2.1 | 22% | 9% | 4% |
 Navy | 4–0 | 6–0 | 6.0–2.0 | 20% | 7% | 2% |
 Florida Atlantic | 2–1 | 3–3 | 3.4–4.6 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 North Texas | 1–1 | 5–1 | 5.5–2.5 | 13% | 4% | 1% |
 UTSA | 1–1 | 3–3 | 4.7–3.3 | 8% | 3% | 2% |
 East Carolina | 1–1 | 3–3 | 5.1–2.9 | 8% | 3% | 1% |
 Army | 2–2 | 3–3 | 4.6–3.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Temple | 1–1 | 3–3 | 2.8–5.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Rice | 1–3 | 3–4 | 1.8–6.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Charlotte | 0–3 | 1–5 | 0.9–7.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Tulsa | 0–3 | 2–4 | 1.0–7.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 UAB | 0–3 | 2–4 | 1.5–6.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 8, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 8). How the model works.