The American Athletic race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 14 · 2025
4 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 14; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 North Texas | 6–1 | 10–1 | 7.0–1.0 | 97% | 69% | 40% |
 #24Tulane | 6–1 | 9–2 | 7.0–1.0 | >99% | 29% | 22% |
 Navy | 6–1 | 8–2 | 6.2–1.8 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 South Florida | 5–2 | 8–3 | 6.0–2.0 | 3% | 2% | 1% |
 East Carolina | 5–2 | 7–4 | 5.7–2.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Memphis | 4–3 | 8–3 | 4.8–3.2 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 UTSA | 4–3 | 6–5 | 4.7–3.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Army | 3–4 | 5–5 | 3.3–4.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Florida Atlantic | 3–4 | 4–7 | 3.3–4.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Temple | 3–4 | 5–6 | 3.0–5.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Rice | 2–5 | 5–6 | 2.0–6.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Tulsa | 1–6 | 4–7 | 1.5–6.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 UAB | 1–6 | 3–8 | 1.5–6.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Charlotte | 0–7 | 1–10 | 0.0–8.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.