The Big Ten race
18 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 14 · 2025
4 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 14; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #2Indiana | 8–0 | 11–0 | 9.0–0.0 | >99% | 50% | >99% |
 #1Ohio State | 8–0 | 11–0 | 8.8–0.2 | 80% | 42% | 100% |
 #6Oregon | 7–1 | 10–1 | 7.8–1.2 | 15% | 7% | 77% |
 #15Michigan | 7–1 | 9–2 | 7.2–1.8 | 5% | <1% | 15% |
 #17USC | 6–2 | 8–3 | 7.0–2.0 | 0% | 0% | 9% |
 Iowa | 5–3 | 7–4 | 5.8–3.2 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Washington | 5–3 | 8–3 | 5.2–3.8 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Illinois | 4–4 | 7–4 | 4.7–4.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Minnesota | 4–4 | 6–5 | 4.6–4.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Nebraska | 4–4 | 7–4 | 4.2–4.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Northwestern | 4–4 | 6–5 | 4.3–4.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 UCLA | 3–5 | 3–8 | 3.0–6.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Penn State | 2–6 | 5–6 | 2.9–6.1 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Rutgers | 2–6 | 5–6 | 2.1–6.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Wisconsin | 2–6 | 4–7 | 2.4–6.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Maryland | 1–7 | 4–7 | 1.5–7.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Michigan State | 0–8 | 3–8 | 0.5–8.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Purdue | 0–8 | 2–9 | 0.0–9.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.