The Big Ten race
18 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 13 · 2025
5 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 13; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #2Indiana | 8–0 | 11–0 | 9.0–0.0 | >99% | 52% | >99% |
 #1Ohio State | 7–0 | 10–0 | 8.8–0.2 | 81% | 42% | >99% |
 #7Oregon | 6–1 | 9–1 | 7.6–1.4 | 12% | 5% | 70% |
 #15USC | 6–1 | 8–2 | 7.2–1.8 | 4% | 1% | 19% |
 #18Michigan | 6–1 | 8–2 | 7.0–2.0 | 3% | <1% | 5% |
 #21Illinois | 4–3 | 7–3 | 5.3–3.7 | 0% | 0% | 2% |
 Iowa | 4–3 | 6–4 | 5.7–3.3 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Minnesota | 4–3 | 6–4 | 5.1–3.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Nebraska | 4–3 | 7–3 | 4.4–4.6 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Washington | 4–3 | 7–3 | 5.1–3.9 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Northwestern | 3–4 | 5–5 | 3.8–5.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 UCLA | 3–4 | 3–7 | 3.2–5.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Rutgers | 2–5 | 5–5 | 2.1–6.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Maryland | 1–6 | 4–6 | 1.8–7.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Penn State | 1–6 | 4–6 | 2.8–6.2 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Wisconsin | 1–6 | 3–7 | 1.7–7.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Michigan State | 0–7 | 3–7 | 0.4–8.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Purdue | 0–8 | 2–9 | 0.0–9.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 13, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 13). How the model works.