The Mountain West race
12 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 13 · 2025
7 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 13; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 San Diego State | 5–1 | 8–2 | 6.3–1.7 | 52% | 22% | <1% |
 UNLV | 4–2 | 8–2 | 5.5–2.5 | 56% | 33% | 4% |
 Boise State | 4–2 | 6–4 | 5.5–2.5 | 44% | 25% | 3% |
 Fresno State | 4–2 | 7–3 | 5.5–2.5 | 25% | 12% | <1% |
 Hawai'i | 4–2 | 7–3 | 5.0–3.0 | 13% | 5% | <1% |
 New Mexico | 4–2 | 7–3 | 5.0–3.0 | 9% | 3% | <1% |
 Utah State | 3–3 | 5–5 | 3.7–4.3 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 Air Force | 2–4 | 3–7 | 3.1–4.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 San José State | 2–4 | 3–7 | 2.3–5.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Wyoming | 2–4 | 4–6 | 2.9–5.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Colorado State | 1–5 | 2–8 | 1.5–6.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Nevada | 1–5 | 2–8 | 1.5–6.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 13, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 13). How the model works.