The Mountain West race
12 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 12 · 2025
9 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 12; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Boise State | 4–1 | 6–3 | 6.2–1.8 | 79% | 47% | 8% |
 San Diego State | 4–1 | 7–2 | 5.6–2.4 | 25% | 9% | <1% |
 Hawai'i | 4–2 | 7–3 | 5.0–3.0 | 14% | 5% | <1% |
 UNLV | 3–2 | 7–2 | 5.5–2.5 | 53% | 29% | 5% |
 New Mexico | 3–2 | 6–3 | 4.9–3.1 | 15% | 5% | <1% |
 Fresno State | 3–2 | 6–3 | 4.9–3.1 | 10% | 4% | <1% |
 Utah State | 3–2 | 5–4 | 3.9–4.1 | 3% | 1% | <1% |
 San José State | 2–3 | 3–6 | 3.5–4.5 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Wyoming | 2–3 | 4–5 | 3.5–4.5 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Air Force | 2–4 | 3–6 | 3.1–4.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Colorado State | 1–4 | 2–7 | 1.6–6.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Nevada | 0–5 | 1–8 | 0.5–7.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.