The Mid-American race
13 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 12 · 2025
7 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 12; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ohio | 4–1 | 6–3 | 6.4–1.6 | 71% | 47% | 5% |
 Miami (OH) | 4–1 | 5–4 | 5.9–2.1 | 50% | 21% | <1% |
 Western Michigan | 4–1 | 5–4 | 5.5–2.5 | 25% | 8% | <1% |
 Buffalo | 4–1 | 5–4 | 5.4–2.6 | 27% | 8% | <1% |
 Toledo | 3–2 | 5–4 | 5.4–2.6 | 26% | 15% | 2% |
 Central Michigan | 3–2 | 5–4 | 4.4–3.6 | 1% | <1% | 0% |
 Ball State | 3–2 | 4–5 | 3.5–4.5 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Akron | 3–3 | 4–6 | 4.0–4.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Kent State | 2–3 | 3–6 | 2.6–5.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Eastern Michigan | 2–4 | 3–7 | 3.1–4.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Northern Illinois | 1–4 | 2–7 | 3.1–4.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Bowling Green | 1–5 | 3–7 | 2.6–5.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Massachusetts | 0–5 | 0–9 | 0.3–7.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.