The Big 12 race
16 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 12 · 2025
10 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 12; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #6Texas Tech | 6–1 | 9–1 | 7.9–1.1 | 96% | 71% | 81% |
 #12BYU | 5–1 | 8–1 | 6.9–2.1 | 47% | 11% | 30% |
 #25Cincinnati | 5–1 | 7–2 | 6.4–2.6 | 15% | 2% | 2% |
 Houston | 5–2 | 8–2 | 5.6–3.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 #13Utah | 4–2 | 7–2 | 6.5–2.5 | 24% | 13% | 46% |
 Arizona State | 4–2 | 6–3 | 6.2–2.8 | 17% | 3% | 2% |
 TCU | 3–3 | 6–3 | 4.8–4.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Kansas State | 3–3 | 4–5 | 5.0–4.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Baylor | 3–3 | 5–4 | 4.4–4.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Arizona | 3–3 | 6–3 | 4.3–4.7 | <1% | 0% | <1% |
 Iowa State | 3–4 | 6–4 | 4.6–4.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Kansas | 3–4 | 5–5 | 3.5–5.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 West Virginia | 2–5 | 4–6 | 2.2–6.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 UCF | 1–5 | 4–5 | 2.2–6.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Colorado | 1–6 | 3–7 | 1.4–7.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Oklahoma State | 0–6 | 1–8 | 0.2–8.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.