The Big 12 race
16 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 4 · 2025
16 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 4; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #12Iowa State | 1–0 | 4–0 | 5.4–3.6 | 18% | 7% | 11% |
 Houston | 1–0 | 3–0 | 4.5–4.5 | 5% | 1% | <1% |
 Kansas State | 0–1 | 1–3 | 4.5–4.5 | 8% | 4% | 4% |
 Colorado | 0–1 | 1–2 | 3.8–5.2 | 3% | 2% | 2% |
 Arizona State | 0–0 | 2–1 | 6.0–3.0 | 36% | 21% | 20% |
 TCU | 0–0 | 2–0 | 5.9–3.1 | 32% | 18% | 19% |
 #17Texas Tech | 0–0 | 3–0 | 5.6–3.4 | 22% | 12% | 14% |
 #16Utah | 0–0 | 3–0 | 5.2–3.8 | 21% | 11% | 13% |
 BYU | 0–0 | 2–0 | 5.3–3.7 | 19% | 9% | 10% |
 Kansas | 0–0 | 2–1 | 5.3–3.7 | 15% | 6% | 5% |
 Baylor | 0–0 | 2–1 | 4.9–4.1 | 11% | 5% | 3% |
 UCF | 0–0 | 2–0 | 4.4–4.6 | 5% | 2% | 1% |
 Cincinnati | 0–0 | 2–1 | 3.9–5.1 | 3% | 1% | <1% |
 Arizona | 0–0 | 3–0 | 3.4–5.6 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 West Virginia | 0–0 | 2–1 | 2.7–6.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Oklahoma State | 0–0 | 1–1 | 1.2–7.8 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.