The Mountain West race
12 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 4 · 2025
12 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 4; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Utah State | 1–0 | 2–1 | 4.5–3.5 | 14% | 5% | <1% |
 Air Force | 0–1 | 1–1 | 3.3–4.7 | 3% | 1% | <1% |
 UNLV | 0–0 | 3–0 | 6.2–1.8 | 70% | 44% | 15% |
 Boise State | 0–0 | 1–1 | 5.8–2.2 | 58% | 33% | 9% |
 Fresno State | 0–0 | 3–1 | 4.9–3.1 | 19% | 6% | <1% |
 San José State | 0–0 | 0–2 | 4.8–3.2 | 17% | 5% | <1% |
 New Mexico | 0–0 | 2–1 | 3.9–4.1 | 7% | 2% | <1% |
 Colorado State | 0–0 | 1–1 | 3.4–4.6 | 4% | 1% | <1% |
 Wyoming | 0–0 | 2–1 | 3.6–4.4 | 4% | 1% | <1% |
 San Diego State | 0–0 | 1–1 | 3.0–5.0 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Nevada | 0–0 | 1–2 | 2.4–5.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Hawai'i | 0–0 | 3–1 | 2.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.