The Sun Belt race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 4 · 2025
14 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 4; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Southern Miss | 1–0 | 2–1 | 2.9–5.1 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 App State | 0–1 | 2–1 | 3.8–4.2 | 4% | 1% | <1% |
 James Madison | 0–0 | 1–1 | 6.0–2.0 | 46% | 27% | 9% |
 Texas State | 0–0 | 2–1 | 5.9–2.1 | 45% | 25% | 7% |
 South Alabama | 0–0 | 1–2 | 6.0–2.0 | 36% | 17% | 2% |
 Old Dominion | 0–0 | 2–1 | 5.6–2.4 | 25% | 12% | 2% |
 Marshall | 0–0 | 1–2 | 4.9–3.1 | 20% | 9% | 1% |
 Troy | 0–0 | 1–2 | 4.9–3.1 | 13% | 5% | <1% |
 Georgia Southern | 0–0 | 1–2 | 4.1–3.9 | 4% | 1% | <1% |
 Louisiana | 0–0 | 1–2 | 3.6–4.4 | 4% | 1% | <1% |
 Arkansas State | 0–0 | 1–2 | 3.0–5.0 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 Coastal Carolina | 0–0 | 1–2 | 2.1–5.9 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Georgia State | 0–0 | 1–2 | 1.6–6.4 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 UL Monroe | 0–0 | 1–1 | 1.7–6.3 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.