The Sun Belt race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2025
14 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 5; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Coastal Carolina | 1–0 | 2–2 | 3.6–4.4 | 2% | <1% | 0% |
 Southern Miss | 1–0 | 2–2 | 2.9–5.1 | 1% | <1% | 0% |
 South Alabama | 0–1 | 1–3 | 4.6–3.4 | 13% | 4% | <1% |
 App State | 0–1 | 2–1 | 3.8–4.2 | 3% | 1% | <1% |
 James Madison | 0–0 | 2–1 | 6.1–1.9 | 50% | 33% | 14% |
 Texas State | 0–0 | 3–1 | 5.9–2.1 | 58% | 31% | 8% |
 Old Dominion | 0–0 | 2–1 | 5.5–2.5 | 21% | 11% | 2% |
 Marshall | 0–0 | 2–2 | 5.0–3.0 | 21% | 10% | 2% |
 Troy | 0–0 | 2–2 | 5.0–3.0 | 20% | 7% | <1% |
 Louisiana | 0–0 | 1–3 | 3.6–4.4 | 6% | 2% | <1% |
 Georgia Southern | 0–0 | 2–2 | 3.9–4.1 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
 Arkansas State | 0–0 | 1–3 | 2.9–5.1 | 2% | <1% | 0% |
 UL Monroe | 0–0 | 2–1 | 1.9–6.1 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Georgia State | 0–0 | 1–3 | 1.3–6.7 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.