The Sun Belt race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 11 · 2025
8 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 11; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 James Madison | 5–0 | 7–1 | 7.6–0.4 | 95% | 86% | 35% |
 Southern Miss | 4–0 | 6–2 | 5.7–2.3 | 32% | 3% | <1% |
 Troy | 4–1 | 6–3 | 5.8–2.2 | 31% | 5% | <1% |
 Arkansas State | 4–1 | 5–4 | 5.5–2.5 | 37% | 3% | <1% |
 Coastal Carolina | 4–1 | 5–3 | 5.3–2.7 | 5% | 2% | 0% |
 Old Dominion | 3–2 | 6–3 | 5.2–2.8 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Marshall | 2–2 | 4–4 | 4.5–3.5 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Louisiana | 2–3 | 3–6 | 3.8–4.2 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 App State | 1–3 | 4–4 | 2.7–5.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Georgia Southern | 1–3 | 3–5 | 2.5–5.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 South Alabama | 1–4 | 2–7 | 2.7–5.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 UL Monroe | 1–4 | 3–6 | 1.3–6.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Georgia State | 0–4 | 1–7 | 0.5–7.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Texas State | 0–4 | 3–5 | 2.8–5.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.