The Sun Belt race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 10 · 2025
10 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 10; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 James Madison | 4–0 | 6–1 | 7.1–0.9 | 72% | 58% | 27% |
 Troy | 4–0 | 6–2 | 6.8–1.2 | 69% | 18% | <1% |
 Southern Miss | 4–0 | 6–2 | 5.6–2.4 | 26% | 4% | <1% |
 Arkansas State | 3–1 | 4–4 | 4.5–3.5 | 5% | <1% | 0% |
 Coastal Carolina | 3–1 | 4–3 | 4.3–3.7 | 1% | <1% | 0% |
 Marshall | 2–1 | 4–3 | 5.7–2.3 | 27% | 18% | 3% |
 Old Dominion | 2–2 | 5–3 | 5.0–3.0 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 App State | 1–3 | 4–4 | 2.7–5.3 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Georgia Southern | 1–3 | 3–5 | 2.6–5.4 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Louisiana | 1–3 | 2–6 | 3.0–5.0 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 South Alabama | 1–3 | 2–6 | 3.4–4.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 UL Monroe | 1–3 | 3–5 | 1.4–6.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Georgia State | 0–4 | 1–7 | 0.5–7.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Texas State | 0–3 | 3–4 | 3.5–4.5 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.