The Sun Belt race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 9 · 2025
12 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 9; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 James Madison | 4–0 | 6–1 | 7.1–0.9 | 71% | 58% | 25% |
 Troy | 3–0 | 5–2 | 6.6–1.4 | 73% | 19% | <1% |
 Southern Miss | 3–0 | 5–2 | 5.3–2.7 | 23% | 3% | <1% |
 Coastal Carolina | 3–1 | 4–3 | 4.3–3.7 | 1% | <1% | 0% |
 Marshall | 2–1 | 4–3 | 5.7–2.3 | 27% | 19% | 3% |
 Arkansas State | 2–1 | 3–4 | 3.9–4.1 | 4% | <1% | 0% |
 Louisiana | 1–2 | 2–5 | 3.2–4.8 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 App State | 1–2 | 4–3 | 2.9–5.1 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Georgia Southern | 1–2 | 3–4 | 3.2–4.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Old Dominion | 1–2 | 4–3 | 4.7–3.3 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 UL Monroe | 1–2 | 3–4 | 1.6–6.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Texas State | 0–3 | 3–4 | 3.5–4.5 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 South Alabama | 0–3 | 1–6 | 3.2–4.8 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Georgia State | 0–3 | 1–6 | 0.7–7.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 9, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 9). How the model works.