The American Athletic race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 9 · 2025
9 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 9; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #18South Florida | 3–0 | 6–1 | 6.6–1.4 | 67% | 36% | 27% |
 Tulane | 3–0 | 6–1 | 6.4–1.6 | 32% | 14% | 3% |
 Navy | 4–0 | 6–0 | 5.8–2.2 | 17% | 6% | 1% |
 North Texas | 2–1 | 6–1 | 6.3–1.7 | 47% | 23% | 9% |
 Memphis | 2–1 | 6–1 | 5.6–2.4 | 30% | 17% | 11% |
 East Carolina | 2–1 | 4–3 | 5.3–2.7 | 6% | 2% | <1% |
 Temple | 2–1 | 4–3 | 3.6–4.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Florida Atlantic | 2–2 | 3–4 | 3.2–4.8 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Army | 2–3 | 3–4 | 4.3–3.7 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 UTSA | 1–2 | 3–4 | 3.5–4.5 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Rice | 1–3 | 3–4 | 1.7–6.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 UAB | 1–3 | 3–4 | 2.5–5.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Charlotte | 0–4 | 1–6 | 0.3–7.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Tulsa | 0–4 | 2–5 | 0.9–7.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 9, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 9). How the model works.