The American Athletic race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 13 · 2025
5 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 13; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Navy | 6–1 | 8–2 | 6.2–1.8 | 4% | 1% | <1% |
 North Texas | 5–1 | 9–1 | 6.9–1.1 | 89% | 63% | 35% |
 #24Tulane | 5–1 | 8–2 | 6.7–1.3 | 85% | 25% | 20% |
 East Carolina | 5–1 | 7–3 | 6.4–1.6 | 17% | 7% | 2% |
 South Florida | 4–2 | 7–3 | 5.9–2.1 | 5% | 4% | 2% |
 Memphis | 4–3 | 8–3 | 4.8–3.2 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Army | 3–3 | 5–4 | 4.4–3.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Temple | 3–3 | 5–5 | 3.3–4.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 UTSA | 3–3 | 5–5 | 4.0–4.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Florida Atlantic | 3–4 | 4–6 | 3.2–4.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Rice | 2–4 | 5–5 | 2.1–5.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 UAB | 1–5 | 3–7 | 1.6–6.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Charlotte | 0–7 | 1–9 | 0.0–8.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Tulsa | 0–6 | 3–7 | 0.5–7.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 13, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 13). How the model works.