The Big 12 race
16 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 13 · 2025
7 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 13; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #5Texas Tech | 7–1 | 10–1 | 8.0–1.0 | 98% | 74% | 93% |
 #11BYU | 6–1 | 9–1 | 7.5–1.5 | 75% | 18% | 36% |
 #12Utah | 5–2 | 8–2 | 6.8–2.2 | 13% | 6% | 43% |
 #25Arizona State | 5–2 | 7–3 | 6.3–2.7 | 13% | 2% | 2% |
 Cincinnati | 5–2 | 7–3 | 5.7–3.3 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 #23Houston | 5–2 | 8–2 | 5.7–3.3 | <1% | <1% | 1% |
 Arizona | 4–3 | 7–3 | 5.0–4.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Kansas State | 4–3 | 5–5 | 5.0–4.0 | <1% | 0% | <1% |
 Baylor | 3–4 | 5–5 | 4.1–4.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Iowa State | 3–4 | 6–4 | 4.6–4.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Kansas | 3–4 | 5–5 | 3.5–5.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 TCU | 3–4 | 6–4 | 4.2–4.8 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 West Virginia | 2–6 | 4–7 | 2.0–7.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Colorado | 1–6 | 3–7 | 1.4–7.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 UCF | 1–6 | 4–6 | 2.0–7.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Oklahoma State | 0–7 | 1–9 | 0.1–8.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 13, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 13). How the model works.