The Big 12 race
16 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2025
15 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 5; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #12Texas Tech | 1–0 | 4–0 | 6.6–2.4 | 43% | 25% | 32% |
 Arizona State | 1–0 | 3–1 | 6.4–2.6 | 39% | 21% | 19% |
 Kansas | 1–0 | 3–1 | 6.1–2.9 | 23% | 11% | 10% |
 #14Iowa State | 1–0 | 4–0 | 5.3–3.7 | 15% | 6% | 7% |
 Houston | 1–0 | 3–0 | 4.4–4.6 | 4% | 1% | <1% |
 Kansas State | 0–1 | 1–3 | 4.4–4.6 | 6% | 3% | 3% |
 Baylor | 0–1 | 2–2 | 4.6–4.4 | 4% | 2% | 1% |
 Utah | 0–1 | 3–1 | 4.0–5.0 | 3% | 1% | 2% |
 Colorado | 0–1 | 2–2 | 4.0–5.0 | 3% | 1% | 2% |
 West Virginia | 0–1 | 2–2 | 1.8–7.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 #24TCU | 0–0 | 3–0 | 6.0–3.0 | 29% | 16% | 17% |
 #25BYU | 0–0 | 3–0 | 5.6–3.4 | 21% | 11% | 12% |
 UCF | 0–0 | 3–0 | 4.8–4.2 | 7% | 3% | 2% |
 Cincinnati | 0–0 | 2–1 | 3.8–5.2 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Arizona | 0–0 | 3–0 | 3.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Oklahoma State | 0–0 | 1–2 | 1.0–8.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.