The SEC race
16 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2025
16 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 5; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #5Georgia | 1–0 | 3–0 | 6.7–1.3 | 67% | 42% | 89% |
 #13Ole Miss | 2–0 | 4–0 | 6.6–1.4 | 40% | 20% | 52% |
 #20Missouri | 1–0 | 4–0 | 4.7–3.3 | 6% | 1% | 9% |
 #7Oklahoma | 1–0 | 4–0 | 3.7–4.3 | 4% | <1% | 37% |
 #4LSU | 1–0 | 4–0 | 4.2–3.8 | 3% | <1% | 45% |
 #18Vanderbilt | 1–0 | 4–0 | 4.3–3.7 | 3% | <1% | 8% |
 #15Tennessee | 0–1 | 3–1 | 4.7–3.3 | 5% | 2% | 19% |
 Auburn | 0–1 | 3–1 | 2.7–5.3 | <1% | <1% | 2% |
 Arkansas | 0–1 | 2–2 | 3.0–5.0 | <1% | <1% | 2% |
 Florida | 0–1 | 1–3 | 2.2–5.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Kentucky | 0–1 | 2–1 | 1.7–6.3 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 South Carolina | 0–2 | 2–2 | 2.0–6.0 | <1% | 0% | 1% |
 #10Texas | 0–0 | 3–1 | 6.2–1.8 | 37% | 18% | 60% |
 #17Alabama | 0–0 | 2–1 | 5.6–2.4 | 30% | 14% | 34% |
 #9Texas A&M | 0–0 | 3–0 | 4.5–3.5 | 3% | <1% | 33% |
 Mississippi State | 0–0 | 4–0 | 1.3–6.7 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.