The Conference USA race
12 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2025
12 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 5; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacksonville State | 1–0 | 2–2 | 6.9–1.1 | 81% | 57% | 13% |
 Delaware | 1–0 | 3–1 | 5.7–2.3 | 43% | 18% | 1% |
 Louisiana Tech | 1–0 | 3–1 | 5.5–2.5 | 33% | 12% | <1% |
 Western Kentucky | 1–0 | 3–1 | 4.7–3.3 | 14% | 5% | <1% |
 Liberty | 0–1 | 1–3 | 4.6–3.4 | 15% | 5% | <1% |
 Florida International | 0–1 | 2–2 | 3.3–4.7 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Sam Houston | 0–1 | 0–4 | 2.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 New Mexico State | 0–1 | 2–1 | 2.6–5.4 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Missouri State | 0–0 | 2–2 | 4.1–3.9 | 8% | 2% | <1% |
 UTEP | 0–0 | 1–3 | 2.8–5.2 | 2% | <1% | 0% |
 Kennesaw State | 0–0 | 2–2 | 2.9–5.1 | 1% | <1% | 0% |
 Middle Tennessee | 0–0 | 1–3 | 2.5–5.5 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.