The Conference USA race
12 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2025
12 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 5; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacksonville State | 1–0 | 2–2 | 7.0–1.0 | 80% | 54% | 13% |
 Delaware | 1–0 | 3–1 | 5.7–2.3 | 41% | 18% | <1% |
 Louisiana Tech | 1–0 | 3–1 | 5.6–2.4 | 34% | 13% | <1% |
 Western Kentucky | 1–0 | 3–1 | 4.7–3.3 | 15% | 5% | 0% |
 Liberty | 0–1 | 1–3 | 4.6–3.4 | 15% | 6% | 0% |
 Florida International | 0–1 | 2–2 | 3.3–4.7 | 3% | <1% | 0% |
 Sam Houston | 0–1 | 0–4 | 2.4–5.6 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 New Mexico State | 0–1 | 2–1 | 2.5–5.5 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Missouri State | 0–0 | 2–2 | 4.1–3.9 | 8% | 2% | 0% |
 UTEP | 0–0 | 1–3 | 2.7–5.3 | 2% | <1% | 0% |
 Kennesaw State | 0–0 | 2–2 | 2.9–5.1 | 1% | <1% | 0% |
 Middle Tennessee | 0–0 | 1–3 | 2.5–5.5 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5).