The Conference USA race
12 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 1 · 2025
12 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 1; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacksonville State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 6.5–1.5 | 73% | 52% | 18% |
 Liberty | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.2–2.8 | 33% | 14% | 2% |
 Delaware | 0–0 | 0–0 | 5.0–3.0 | 29% | 13% | 2% |
 Western Kentucky | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.5–3.5 | 17% | 7% | <1% |
 Louisiana Tech | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.3–3.7 | 14% | 5% | <1% |
 Florida International | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.7–4.3 | 9% | 3% | <1% |
 Sam Houston | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.8–4.2 | 8% | 3% | <1% |
 Missouri State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 4.0–4.0 | 9% | 2% | <1% |
 Kennesaw State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.2–4.8 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 New Mexico State | 0–0 | 0–0 | 3.1–4.9 | 2% | <1% | 0% |
 UTEP | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.4–5.6 | 1% | <1% | 0% |
 Middle Tennessee | 0–0 | 0–0 | 2.4–5.6 | 1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 1, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 1). How the model works.