The Conference USA race
12 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 11 · 2025
9 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 11; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacksonville State | 4–0 | 5–3 | 7.1–0.9 | 84% | 51% | 1% |
 Kennesaw State | 4–0 | 6–2 | 5.8–2.2 | 40% | 14% | <1% |
 Western Kentucky | 5–1 | 7–2 | 6.0–2.0 | 24% | 9% | <1% |
 Liberty | 3–1 | 4–4 | 5.7–2.3 | 40% | 21% | <1% |
 Missouri State | 3–1 | 5–3 | 4.7–3.3 | 9% | 3% | <1% |
 Louisiana Tech | 3–2 | 5–3 | 4.6–3.4 | 3% | 1% | <1% |
 Delaware | 2–3 | 4–4 | 4.2–3.8 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Florida International | 1–3 | 3–5 | 2.7–5.3 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 UTEP | 1–3 | 2–6 | 2.3–5.7 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 New Mexico State | 1–4 | 3–5 | 2.3–5.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Middle Tennessee | 0–4 | 1–7 | 1.9–6.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Sam Houston | 0–5 | 0–8 | 0.6–7.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.