The Big Ten race
18 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 11 · 2025
7 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 11; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #2Indiana | 6–0 | 9–0 | 8.6–0.4 | 94% | 51% | >99% |
 #1Ohio State | 5–0 | 8–0 | 8.8–0.2 | 86% | 43% | >99% |
 #21Michigan | 5–1 | 7–2 | 6.8–2.2 | 6% | <1% | 4% |
 #9Oregon | 4–1 | 7–1 | 7.2–1.8 | 9% | 4% | 68% |
 #20Iowa | 4–1 | 6–2 | 6.5–2.5 | 3% | <1% | 10% |
 #19USC | 4–1 | 6–2 | 6.7–2.3 | 2% | <1% | 10% |
 Minnesota | 4–2 | 6–3 | 5.2–3.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 #23Washington | 3–2 | 6–2 | 5.6–3.4 | <1% | <1% | 2% |
 Northwestern | 3–2 | 5–3 | 4.1–4.9 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 UCLA | 3–2 | 3–5 | 3.5–5.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Illinois | 3–3 | 6–3 | 5.0–4.0 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Nebraska | 3–3 | 6–3 | 4.1–4.9 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Maryland | 1–4 | 4–4 | 2.7–6.3 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Rutgers | 1–5 | 4–5 | 1.6–7.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Michigan State | 0–6 | 3–6 | 0.4–8.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Penn State | 0–5 | 3–5 | 3.1–5.9 | 0% | 0% | 2% |
 Purdue | 0–6 | 2–7 | 0.1–8.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Wisconsin | 0–5 | 2–6 | 1.0–8.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.