#1Ohio State Buckeyes
8–0 · 5–0 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 11 · 2025
86%
Big Ten title game
43%
Win the Big Ten
>99%
Make the playoff
85%
First-round bye
avg seed 2.7
How the week went: playoff odds >99% → >99% · title-game odds 86% → 79%.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Ohio State's pathYour game
…
… · BTN
#1 Ohio State at Purdue
Your game. Beat Purdue and your playoff odds are >99%; lose and they drop to 96%.
Final · Ohio State 34–10 PurdueWish granted ✓
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · FOX
#2 Indiana at Penn State
Big Ten race: Indiana losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Penn State — their wins make your résumé stronger; you still play Indiana in week 15.
Final · Indiana 27–24 Penn StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Penn State+14.9 pp title-game odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ABC
#3 Texas A&M at #22 Missouri
You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Missouri winning protects it.
Final · Texas A&M 38–17 MissouriWent the other way ✗
Root for Missouri+3.4 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · CBS
#9 Oregon at #20 Iowa
Big Ten race: Oregon losing helps your spot in the standings.
Final · Oregon 18–16 IowaWent the other way ✗
Root for Iowa+2.6 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN
#5 Georgia at Mississippi State
You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Mississippi State winning protects it.
Final · Georgia 41–21 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Mississippi State+2.5 pp first-round-bye odds
46 more games that don't move your needle
Nebraska at UCLA · FOX
LSU at Alabama · ABC
Stanford at North Carolina · The CW Network
Massachusetts at Akron · CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Ohio · ESPN2
Kent State at Ball State · ESPNU
Northern Illinois at Toledo · ESPN2
Georgia Southern at App State · ESPN2
UTSA at South Florida · ESPN
Houston at UCF · FS1
Northwestern at USC · FOX
Tulane at Memphis · ESPN
SMU at Boston College · ACC Network
BYU at Texas Tech · ABC
Colorado at West Virginia · TNT
James Madison at Marshall · ESPN2
Southern Miss at Arkansas State · ESPNU
Temple at Army · CBSSN
Missouri State at Liberty · ESPN+
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+
UAB at Rice · ESPN+
Maryland at Rutgers · FS1
Louisiana Tech at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+
Jacksonville State at UTEP · ESPN+
Charlotte at East Carolina · ESPN+
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Syracuse at Miami · ESPN
Duke at UConn · CBSSN
Kansas at Arizona · ESPN2
Iowa State at TCU · FOX
Auburn at Vanderbilt · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at New Mexico State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
Washington at Wisconsin · BTN
Texas State at Louisiana · ESPN+
Air Force at San José State · FS1
California at Louisville · ESPN2
Florida State at Clemson · ACC Network
Wake Forest at Virginia · ESPN
Florida at Kentucky · SEC Network
Navy at Notre Dame · NBC
Nevada at Utah State · CBSSN
UNLV at Colorado State · FS1
Sam Houston at Oregon State · The CW Network
San Diego State at Hawai'i
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.