The CFP race

8BYU8–049%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Ole Miss8–176%

→

1Indiana9–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Georgia7–185%

First round · at the 5 seed

12Notre Dame6–271%

→

4Alabama7–189%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Texas Tech8–169%

First round · at the 6 seed

11Texas7–241%

→

3Texas A&M8–096%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Oregon7–168%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Utah7–247%

→

2Ohio State8–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

#5Georgia7–1 · SEC▼ −6pp85%

#6Ole Miss8–1 · SEC▼ −3pp76%

#10Notre Dame6–2 · FBS Independents▲ +1pp71%

#8Texas Tech8–1 · Big 12▲ +22pp69%

#9Oregon7–1 · Big Ten▼ −15pp68%

#7BYU8–0 · Big 12▲ +32pp49%

#13Utah7–2 · Big 12▲ +30pp47%

#11Texas7–2 · SEC▲ +29pp41%

James Madison7–1 · Sun Belt▲ +8pp35%

#12Oklahoma7–2 · SEC▲ +24pp33%

#14Virginia8–1 · ACC▲ +10pp29%

#15Louisville7–1 · ACC▲ +4pp27%

North Texas8–1 · American Athletic▲ +8pp21%

Memphis8–1 · American Athletic18%

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.