The CFP race

12 teams with the highest individual playoff chances. This is not a projected field or bracket.

TeamMake CFP

#1Ohio State8–0>99%#2Indiana9–0>99%#3Texas A&M8–096%#4Alabama7–189%#5Georgia7–185%#6Ole Miss8–176%#10Notre Dame6–271%#8Texas Tech8–169%#9Oregon7–168%#7BYU8–049%#13Utah7–247%#11Texas7–241%

#5Georgia7–1 · SEC▼ −6pp85%

#6Ole Miss8–1 · SEC▼ −3pp76%

#10Notre Dame6–2 · FBS Independents▲ +1pp71%

#8Texas Tech8–1 · Big 12▲ +22pp69%

#9Oregon7–1 · Big Ten▼ −15pp68%

#7BYU8–0 · Big 12▲ +32pp49%

#13Utah7–2 · Big 12▲ +30pp47%

#11Texas7–2 · SEC▲ +29pp41%

James Madison7–1 · Sun Belt▲ +8pp35%

#12Oklahoma7–2 · SEC▲ +24pp33%

#14Virginia8–1 · ACC▲ +10pp29%

#15Louisville7–1 · ACC▲ +4pp27%

North Texas8–1 · American Athletic▲ +8pp21%

Memphis8–1 · American Athletic18%

…

… · ABC

#7BYUat#8Texas Tech

Final · #7 BYU 7–29 #8 Texas Tech

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… · CBS

#9Oregonat#20Iowa

Final · #9 Oregon 18–16 #20 Iowa

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… · NBC

Navyat#10Notre Dame

Final · Navy 10–49 #10 Notre Dame

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… · ABC

#3Texas A&Mat#22Missouri

Final · #3 Texas A&M 38–17 #22 Missouri

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… · ESPN

#5GeorgiaatMississippi State

Final · #5 Georgia 41–21 Mississippi State

…

… · ESPN2

James MadisonatMarshall

Final · James Madison 35–23 Marshall

…

… · ESPN

Wake Forestat#14Virginia

Final · Wake Forest 16–9 #14 Virginia

…

… · ABC

LSUat#4Alabama

Final · LSU 9–20 #4 Alabama

…

… · ESPN2

Californiaat#15Louisville

Final · California 29–26 #15 Louisville

…

… · ESPN

TulaneatMemphis

Final · Tulane 38–32 Memphis

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.