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#4Alabama Crimson Tide

7–1 · 5–0 SEC
In the books
WEEK 11 · 2025
90%
SEC title game
45%
Win the SEC
89%
Make the playoff
50%
First-round bye
avg seed 4.5
How the week went: playoff odds 89% → 87% · title-game odds 90% → 92%.
Playoff odds by week
1234567891011

If Alabama wins out: 51% to win the SEC, 99% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves Alabama's path
Your game
…
… · ABC
LSU at #4 Alabama

Your game. Beat LSU and your playoff odds are 91%; lose and they drop to 70%.

Final · LSU 9–20 AlabamaWish granted ✓
Just win
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · BTN
#1 Ohio State at Purdue

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Purdue winning protects it.

Final · Ohio State 34–10 PurdueWent the other way ✗
Root for Purdue+5.1 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · ESPN
#5 Georgia at Mississippi State

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Mississippi State winning protects it; you already beat Georgia; them losing again keeps them behind you; you still play Georgia in week 15.

Final · Georgia 41–21 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Mississippi State+3.6 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · ABC
#3 Texas A&M at #22 Missouri

SEC race: Texas A&M losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Missouri — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · Texas A&M 38–17 MissouriWent the other way ✗
Root for Missouri+2.7 pp title-game odds
…
… · FOX
#2 Indiana at Penn State

You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Penn State winning protects it.

Final · Indiana 27–24 Penn StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Penn State+2.7 pp first-round-bye odds
…
… · SEC Network
Auburn at #16 Vanderbilt

You already beat Vanderbilt; them losing again keeps them behind you; Auburn visits your schedule in week 14 — keep them ranked.

Final · Auburn 38–45 VanderbiltWent the other way ✗
Root for Auburn+1.2 pp playoff odds
45 more games that don't move your needle
Oregon at Iowa · CBS
Massachusetts at Akron · CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Ohio · ESPN2
Kent State at Ball State · ESPNU
Northern Illinois at Toledo · ESPN2
Georgia Southern at App State · ESPN2
UTSA at South Florida · ESPN
Houston at UCF · FS1
Northwestern at USC · FOX
Tulane at Memphis · ESPN
SMU at Boston College · ACC Network
BYU at Texas Tech · ABC
Colorado at West Virginia · TNT
James Madison at Marshall · ESPN2
Southern Miss at Arkansas State · ESPNU
Temple at Army · CBSSN
Missouri State at Liberty · ESPN+
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+
UAB at Rice · ESPN+
Maryland at Rutgers · FS1
Louisiana Tech at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+
Jacksonville State at UTEP · ESPN+
Charlotte at East Carolina · ESPN+
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Syracuse at Miami · ESPN
Duke at UConn · CBSSN
Kansas at Arizona · ESPN2
Iowa State at TCU · FOX
Kennesaw State at New Mexico State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
Washington at Wisconsin · BTN
Stanford at North Carolina · The CW Network
Texas State at Louisiana · ESPN+
Air Force at San José State · FS1
California at Louisville · ESPN2
Florida State at Clemson · ACC Network
Wake Forest at Virginia · ESPN
Florida at Kentucky · SEC Network
Navy at Notre Dame · NBC
Nevada at Utah State · CBSSN
Nebraska at UCLA · FOX
UNLV at Colorado State · FS1
Sam Houston at Oregon State · The CW Network
San Diego State at Hawai'i

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.