The SEC race
16 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 11 · 2025
8 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 11; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #4Alabama | 5–0 | 7–1 | 7.5–0.5 | 90% | 45% | 89% |
 #3Texas A&M | 5–0 | 8–0 | 6.6–1.4 | 21% | 7% | 96% |
 #5Georgia | 5–1 | 7–1 | 6.6–1.4 | 59% | 34% | 85% |
 #6Ole Miss | 5–1 | 8–1 | 6.8–1.2 | 15% | 7% | 76% |
 #11Texas | 4–1 | 7–2 | 5.9–2.1 | 14% | 7% | 41% |
 #12Oklahoma | 3–2 | 7–2 | 4.5–3.5 | <1% | <1% | 33% |
 #16Vanderbilt | 3–2 | 7–2 | 4.9–3.1 | <1% | <1% | 10% |
 #22Missouri | 2–2 | 6–2 | 4.4–3.6 | <1% | <1% | 4% |
 #25Tennessee | 3–3 | 6–3 | 4.3–3.7 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Florida | 2–3 | 3–5 | 3.0–5.0 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 LSU | 2–3 | 5–3 | 3.1–4.9 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Mississippi State | 1–4 | 5–4 | 1.3–6.7 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Auburn | 1–5 | 4–5 | 1.5–6.5 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Kentucky | 1–5 | 3–5 | 1.6–6.4 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 South Carolina | 1–6 | 3–6 | 1.2–6.8 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Arkansas | 0–5 | 2–7 | 0.7–7.3 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.