The ACC race
17 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 11 · 2025
7 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 11; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #14Virginia | 5–0 | 8–1 | 6.9–1.1 | 71% | 26% | 29% |
 #17Georgia Tech | 5–1 | 8–1 | 6.3–1.7 | 23% | 11% | 13% |
 #24Pittsburgh | 5–1 | 7–2 | 5.8–2.2 | 13% | 7% | 7% |
 #15Louisville | 4–1 | 7–1 | 6.0–2.0 | 33% | 22% | 27% |
 Duke | 4–1 | 5–3 | 6.2–1.8 | 38% | 19% | 10% |
 SMU | 4–1 | 6–3 | 6.3–1.7 | 20% | 13% | 11% |
 #18Miami | 2–2 | 6–2 | 5.4–2.6 | 3% | 2% | 12% |
 California | 2–3 | 5–4 | 2.9–5.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 NC State | 2–3 | 5–4 | 3.3–4.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Virginia Tech | 2–3 | 3–6 | 2.5–5.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Wake Forest | 2–3 | 5–3 | 2.9–5.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Clemson | 2–4 | 3–5 | 3.0–5.0 | 0% | 0% | 1% |
 Stanford | 2–4 | 3–6 | 2.6–5.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 North Carolina | 1–3 | 3–5 | 2.8–5.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Florida State | 1–4 | 4–4 | 2.7–5.3 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Syracuse | 1–5 | 3–6 | 1.6–6.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Boston College | 0–5 | 1–8 | 0.8–7.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.