The ACC race
17 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 6 · 2025
17 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 6; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Louisville | 1–0 | 4–0 | 5.8–2.2 | 42% | 22% | 19% |
 Duke | 2–0 | 3–2 | 5.7–2.3 | 27% | 8% | 5% |
 #17Georgia Tech | 2–0 | 5–0 | 5.6–2.4 | 17% | 5% | 5% |
 #24Virginia | 2–0 | 4–1 | 5.3–2.7 | 16% | 5% | 4% |
 California | 1–0 | 4–1 | 4.0–4.0 | 5% | <1% | <1% |
 Virginia Tech | 1–0 | 2–3 | 3.5–4.5 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
 Syracuse | 1–1 | 3–2 | 3.1–4.9 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Stanford | 1–1 | 2–3 | 2.2–5.8 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 NC State | 1–2 | 3–2 | 3.2–4.8 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Clemson | 0–2 | 1–3 | 3.5–4.5 | 2% | <1% | 2% |
 #18Florida State | 0–1 | 3–1 | 4.0–4.0 | 2% | <1% | 3% |
 Pittsburgh | 0–1 | 2–2 | 3.4–4.6 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 Boston College | 0–2 | 1–3 | 2.0–6.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Wake Forest | 0–2 | 2–2 | 1.7–6.3 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 #3Miami | 0–0 | 4–0 | 6.6–1.4 | 65% | 47% | 75% |
 SMU | 0–0 | 2–2 | 5.3–2.7 | 20% | 9% | 9% |
 North Carolina | 0–0 | 2–2 | 3.0–5.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.