The ACC race
17 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2025
17 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 5; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #16Georgia Tech | 1–0 | 4–0 | 5.3–2.7 | 18% | 5% | 6% |
 Virginia | 1–0 | 3–1 | 5.0–3.0 | 12% | 3% | 2% |
 Syracuse | 1–0 | 3–1 | 4.4–3.6 | 10% | 2% | 1% |
 Duke | 1–0 | 2–2 | 4.3–3.7 | 6% | 1% | <1% |
 NC State | 1–1 | 3–1 | 3.9–4.1 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Stanford | 1–1 | 1–3 | 2.1–5.9 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Clemson | 0–2 | 1–3 | 3.6–4.4 | 2% | <1% | 2% |
 Boston College | 0–1 | 1–2 | 2.6–5.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Wake Forest | 0–1 | 2–1 | 2.1–5.9 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 #2Miami | 0–0 | 4–0 | 6.5–1.5 | 70% | 52% | 85% |
 Louisville | 0–0 | 3–0 | 5.6–2.4 | 36% | 19% | 18% |
 SMU | 0–0 | 2–2 | 5.3–2.7 | 25% | 11% | 11% |
 #8Florida State | 0–0 | 3–0 | 4.5–3.5 | 9% | 3% | 19% |
 Pittsburgh | 0–0 | 2–1 | 3.4–4.6 | 4% | <1% | <1% |
 California | 0–0 | 3–1 | 3.5–4.5 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Virginia Tech | 0–0 | 1–3 | 2.7–5.3 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
 North Carolina | 0–0 | 2–2 | 3.1–4.9 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.