The Mid-American race
13 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2025
13 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 5; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Buffalo | 1–0 | 2–2 | 5.5–2.5 | 27% | 10% | <1% |
 Western Michigan | 1–0 | 1–3 | 4.3–3.7 | 7% | 2% | 0% |
 Toledo | 0–1 | 2–2 | 5.5–2.5 | 22% | 11% | <1% |
 Kent State | 0–1 | 1–3 | 1.1–6.9 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 Ohio | 0–0 | 2–2 | 6.5–1.5 | 70% | 48% | 6% |
 Bowling Green | 0–0 | 2–2 | 5.7–2.3 | 31% | 13% | <1% |
 Miami (OH) | 0–0 | 0–3 | 5.0–3.0 | 24% | 10% | <1% |
 Northern Illinois | 0–0 | 1–2 | 5.0–3.0 | 15% | 5% | <1% |
 Eastern Michigan | 0–0 | 1–3 | 3.0–5.0 | 3% | <1% | 0% |
 Central Michigan | 0–0 | 2–2 | 2.7–5.3 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Ball State | 0–0 | 1–3 | 2.5–5.5 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Massachusetts | 0–0 | 0–3 | 2.4–5.6 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 Akron | 0–0 | 1–3 | 2.8–5.2 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.