The Mid-American race
13 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 14 · 2025
5 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 14; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Western Michigan | 6–1 | 7–4 | 6.6–1.4 | 92% | 36% | <1% |
 Miami (OH) | 5–2 | 6–5 | 5.9–2.1 | 83% | 46% | <1% |
 Toledo | 5–2 | 7–4 | 5.8–2.2 | 17% | 13% | <1% |
 Ohio | 5–2 | 7–4 | 5.8–2.2 | 5% | 4% | <1% |
 Central Michigan | 5–2 | 7–4 | 5.2–2.8 | 3% | <1% | 0% |
 Buffalo | 4–3 | 5–6 | 4.2–3.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Akron | 4–4 | 5–7 | 4.0–4.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Ball State | 3–4 | 4–7 | 3.1–4.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Eastern Michigan | 3–4 | 4–7 | 3.4–4.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Kent State | 3–4 | 4–7 | 3.1–4.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Northern Illinois | 2–5 | 3–8 | 2.9–5.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Bowling Green | 1–6 | 3–8 | 1.9–6.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Massachusetts | 0–7 | 0–11 | 0.1–7.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.