The Mountain West race
12 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 14 · 2025
4 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 14; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 San Diego State | 6–1 | 9–2 | 6.4–1.6 | 48% | 18% | <1% |
 UNLV | 5–2 | 9–2 | 5.8–2.2 | 63% | 39% | 6% |
 Boise State | 5–2 | 7–4 | 5.6–2.4 | 62% | 34% | 4% |
 New Mexico | 5–2 | 8–3 | 5.6–2.4 | 28% | 9% | <1% |
 Fresno State | 4–3 | 7–4 | 4.8–3.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Hawai'i | 4–3 | 7–4 | 4.7–3.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Utah State | 4–3 | 6–5 | 4.4–3.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Air Force | 2–5 | 3–8 | 2.6–5.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Nevada | 2–5 | 3–8 | 2.2–5.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 San José State | 2–5 | 3–8 | 2.2–5.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Wyoming | 2–5 | 4–7 | 2.3–5.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Colorado State | 1–6 | 2–9 | 1.4–6.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.