The Mountain West race
12 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2025
12 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 5; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Boise State | 1–0 | 2–1 | 5.9–2.1 | 56% | 31% | 8% |
 Fresno State | 1–0 | 4–1 | 5.5–2.5 | 31% | 13% | 2% |
 Utah State | 1–0 | 3–1 | 4.4–3.6 | 11% | 4% | <1% |
 Air Force | 0–2 | 1–2 | 2.9–5.1 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Hawai'i | 0–1 | 3–2 | 2.0–6.0 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 UNLV | 0–0 | 4–0 | 6.2–1.8 | 68% | 42% | 13% |
 San Diego State | 0–0 | 2–1 | 4.3–3.7 | 11% | 3% | <1% |
 San José State | 0–0 | 1–2 | 4.4–3.6 | 11% | 3% | <1% |
 New Mexico | 0–0 | 2–1 | 3.8–4.2 | 6% | 2% | <1% |
 Colorado State | 0–0 | 1–2 | 3.3–4.7 | 4% | 1% | <1% |
 Wyoming | 0–0 | 2–2 | 3.3–4.7 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Nevada | 0–0 | 1–3 | 2.0–6.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.