The Mountain West race
12 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 10 · 2025
10 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 10; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Boise State | 4–0 | 6–2 | 7.3–0.7 | 95% | 67% | 28% |
 San Diego State | 3–0 | 6–1 | 6.3–1.7 | 43% | 15% | 3% |
 Hawai'i | 3–1 | 6–2 | 4.4–3.6 | 4% | <1% | <1% |
 UNLV | 2–1 | 6–1 | 6.0–2.0 | 48% | 15% | 2% |
 New Mexico | 2–2 | 5–3 | 4.0–4.0 | 5% | <1% | <1% |
 Wyoming | 2–2 | 4–4 | 4.0–4.0 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
 Utah State | 2–2 | 4–4 | 3.4–4.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Fresno State | 2–2 | 5–3 | 3.6–4.4 | <1% | <1% | 0% |
 San José State | 1–2 | 2–5 | 3.9–4.1 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
 Colorado State | 1–3 | 2–6 | 2.0–6.0 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 Air Force | 1–4 | 2–5 | 2.3–5.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Nevada | 0–4 | 1–7 | 0.9–7.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.