The CFP race

12 teams with the highest individual playoff chances. This is not a projected field or bracket.

TeamMake CFP

#1Ohio State7–0>99%#2Indiana8–097%#5Georgia6–190%#4Alabama7–190%#3Texas A&M8–088%#6Oregon7–183%#7Ole Miss7–179%#12Notre Dame5–271%#13Texas Tech7–148%#10Miami6–147%#8Georgia Tech8–045%#9Vanderbilt7–137%

#6Oregon7–1 · Big Ten▼ −4pp83%

#7Ole Miss7–1 · SEC▲ +5pp79%

#12Notre Dame5–2 · FBS Independents▲ +11pp71%

#13Texas Tech7–1 · Big 12▲ +4pp48%

#10Miami6–1 · ACC▼ −10pp47%

#8Georgia Tech8–0 · ACC▲ +2pp45%

#9Vanderbilt7–1 · SEC▲ +5pp37%

#14Tennessee6–2 · SEC▲ +13pp29%

Boise State6–2 · Mountain West▼ −1pp28%

James Madison6–1 · Sun Belt▲ +3pp27%

#16Louisville6–1 · ACC▲ +5pp23%

#15Virginia7–1 · ACC▲ +7pp19%

#25Memphis7–1 · American Athletic▲ +6pp18%

BYU8–0 · Big 12▼ −6pp17%

#24Utah6–2 · Big 12▲ +7pp16%

…

… · ABC

#9Vanderbiltat#20Texas

Final · #9 Vanderbilt 31–34 #20 Texas

…

… · ABC

#18Oklahomaat#14Tennessee

Final · #18 Oklahoma 33–27 #14 Tennessee

…

… · ESPN

#10MiamiatSMU

Final · #10 Miami 20–26 SMU

…

… · FOX

#13Texas TechatKansas State

Final · #13 Texas Tech 43–20 Kansas State

…

… · ESPN

#17Cincinnatiat#24Utah

Final · #17 Cincinnati 14–45 #24 Utah

…

… · ESPN

South Carolinaat#7Ole Miss

Final · South Carolina 14–30 #7 Ole Miss

…

… · ESPN2

#8Georgia TechatNC State

Final · #8 Georgia Tech 36–48 NC State

…

… · ESPN

#12Notre DameatBoston College

Final · #12 Notre Dame 25–10 Boston College

…

… · ESPN2

#15VirginiaatCalifornia

Final · #15 Virginia 31–21 California

…

… · The CW Network

#16LouisvilleatVirginia Tech

Final · #16 Louisville 28–16 Virginia Tech

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.