The CFP race

8Notre Dame5–298%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Georgia Tech8–047%

→

1Ohio State7–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Georgia6–1>99%

First round · at the 5 seed

12James Madison6–140%

→

4Texas A&M8–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Oregon7–1>99%

First round · at the 6 seed

11Texas Tech7–142%

→

3Alabama7–1>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Ole Miss7–1>99%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Miami6–153%

→

2Indiana8–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

#10Miami6–1 · ACC▼ −15pp53%

#8Georgia Tech8–0 · ACC47%

#13Texas Tech7–1 · Big 1242%

James Madison6–1 · Sun Belt▲ +6pp40%

#9Vanderbilt7–1 · SEC▲ +22pp38%

Boise State6–2 · Mountain West▲ +4pp34%

BYU8–0 · Big 12▲ +2pp21%

#25Memphis7–1 · American Athletic▲ +12pp20%

#16Louisville6–1 · ACC▼ −1pp16%

#24Utah6–2 · Big 12▲ +7pp16%

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10).