The CFP race

8Georgia Tech8–045%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Miami6–147%

→

1Ohio State7–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Texas A&M8–088%

First round · at the 5 seed

12Texas Tech7–148%

→

4Georgia6–190%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Oregon7–183%

First round · at the 6 seed

11Notre Dame5–271%

→

3Alabama7–190%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Ole Miss7–179%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Vanderbilt7–137%

→

2Indiana8–097%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

#6Oregon7–1 · Big Ten▼ −4pp83%

#7Ole Miss7–1 · SEC▲ +5pp79%

#12Notre Dame5–2 · FBS Independents▲ +11pp71%

#13Texas Tech7–1 · Big 12▲ +4pp48%

#10Miami6–1 · ACC▼ −10pp47%

#8Georgia Tech8–0 · ACC▲ +2pp45%

#9Vanderbilt7–1 · SEC▲ +5pp37%

#14Tennessee6–2 · SEC▲ +13pp29%

Boise State6–2 · Mountain West▼ −1pp28%

James Madison6–1 · Sun Belt▲ +3pp27%

#16Louisville6–1 · ACC▲ +5pp23%

#15Virginia7–1 · ACC▲ +7pp19%

#25Memphis7–1 · American Athletic▲ +6pp18%

BYU8–0 · Big 12▼ −6pp17%

#24Utah6–2 · Big 12▲ +7pp16%

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.