#25Memphis Tigers
7–1 · 3–1 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
In the books
WEEK 10 · 2025
48%
American title game
26%
Win the American
18%
Make the playoff
<1%
First-round bye
avg seed 10.7
How the week went: playoff odds 18% → 18% · title-game odds 48% → 52%.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Memphis's pathYour game
…
… · ESPN2
#25 Memphis at Rice
Your game. Beat Rice and your playoff odds are 19%; lose and they drop to 5%.
Final · Memphis 38–14 RiceWish granted ✓
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ESPN
Tulane at UTSA
American Athletic race: Tulane losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play Tulane in week 11.
Final · Tulane 26–48 UTSAWish granted ✓
Root for UTSA+13.6 pp title-game odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ESPN2
Navy at North Texas
Navy visits your schedule in week 14 — keep them ranked.
Final · Navy 17–31 North TexasWent the other way ✗
Root for Navy+3.1 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN+
East Carolina at Temple
American Athletic race: East Carolina losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play East Carolina in week 12.
Final · East Carolina 45–14 TempleWent the other way ✗
Root for Temple+4.4 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN2
James Madison at Texas State
Texas State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · James Madison 52–20 Texas StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Texas State+1.2 pp playoff odds
47 more games that don't move your needle
UTEP at Kennesaw State · ESPNU
Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee · ESPN2
Florida International at Missouri State · CBSSN
Marshall at Coastal Carolina · ESPN2
North Carolina at Syracuse · ESPN
Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN
Vanderbilt at Texas · ABC
Penn State at Ohio State · FOX
Rutgers at Illinois · NBC
Duke at Clemson · ACC Network
Miami at SMU · ESPN
UCF at Baylor · ESPNU
West Virginia at Houston · FS1
UAB at UConn · CBSSN
Army at Air Force · CBS
Buffalo at Bowling Green · ESPN+
Arizona State at Iowa State · TNT
Louisville at Virginia Tech · The CW Network
New Mexico at UNLV
Georgia at Florida · ABC
Indiana at Maryland · CBS
Michigan State at Minnesota · BTN
Pittsburgh at Stanford · ACC Network
Notre Dame at Boston College · ESPN
Texas Tech at Kansas State · FOX
Delaware at Liberty · CBSSN
New Mexico State at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
Fresno State at Boise State · FS1
Old Dominion at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Louisiana at South Alabama · ESPN+
Virginia at California · ESPN2
Mississippi State at Arkansas · SEC Network
Oklahoma State at Kansas · ESPN+
Central Michigan at Western Michigan · ESPNU
South Carolina at Ole Miss · ESPN
Purdue at Michigan · BTN
Arizona at Colorado · FS1
Wyoming at San Diego State · CBSSN
Kentucky at Auburn · SEC Network
Oklahoma at Tennessee · ABC
USC at Nebraska · NBC
Washington State at Oregon State · CBS
Wake Forest at Florida State · ACC Network
Georgia Tech at NC State · ESPN2
Arkansas State at Troy · ESPNU
Cincinnati at Utah · ESPN
Hawai'i at San José State · CBSSN
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.