The American Athletic race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 10 · 2025
8 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 10; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tulane | 3–0 | 6–1 | 6.5–1.5 | 31% | 13% | 3% |
 Navy | 5–0 | 7–0 | 5.9–2.1 | 16% | 6% | 1% |
 North Texas | 3–1 | 7–1 | 6.5–1.5 | 50% | 27% | 13% |
 #25Memphis | 3–1 | 7–1 | 6.0–2.0 | 48% | 26% | 18% |
 South Florida | 3–1 | 6–2 | 6.2–1.8 | 46% | 24% | 11% |
 Temple | 3–1 | 5–3 | 3.8–4.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 East Carolina | 2–1 | 4–3 | 5.3–2.7 | 8% | 3% | <1% |
 Army | 2–3 | 3–4 | 4.3–3.7 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 Florida Atlantic | 2–3 | 3–5 | 3.1–4.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 UTSA | 1–2 | 3–4 | 3.6–4.4 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Rice | 1–3 | 4–4 | 1.7–6.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 UAB | 1–3 | 3–4 | 2.4–5.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Charlotte | 0–5 | 1–7 | 0.2–7.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Tulsa | 0–5 | 2–6 | 0.6–7.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.