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North Texas Mean Green

7–1 · 3–1 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
In the books
WEEK 10 · 2025
56%
American title game
30%
Win the American
6%
Make the playoff
0%
First-round bye
avg seed 11.9
How the week went: playoff odds 6% → 24% · title-game odds 56% → 88%.
Playoff odds by week
12345678910

If North Texas wins out: 46% to win the American, 10% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves North Texas's path
Your game
…
… · ESPN2
Navy at North Texas

Your game. Beat Navy and your playoff odds are 8%; lose and they drop to <1%.

Final · Navy 17–31 North TexasWish granted ✓
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ESPN2
#25 Memphis at Rice

American Athletic race: Memphis losing helps your spot in the standings; Rice visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.

Final · Memphis 38–14 RiceWent the other way ✗
Root for Rice+9.5 pp title-game odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · FS1
Fresno State at Boise State

Fresno State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Fresno State 30–7 Boise StateWish granted ✓
Root for Fresno State+4.3 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN
Tulane at UTSA

American Athletic race: Tulane losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat UTSA — their wins make your résumé stronger; you still play Tulane in week 15.

Final · Tulane 26–48 UTSAWish granted ✓
Root for UTSA+5.6 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN2
James Madison at Texas State

Texas State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · James Madison 52–20 Texas StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Texas State+3.0 pp playoff odds
…
… · ACC Network
Duke at Clemson

Duke winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Duke 46–45 ClemsonWish granted ✓
Root for Duke+1.9 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN2
Marshall at Coastal Carolina

Marshall winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Marshall 27–44 Coastal CarolinaWent the other way ✗
Root for Marshall+1.3 pp playoff odds
45 more games that don't move your needle
East Carolina at Temple · ESPN+
UTEP at Kennesaw State · ESPNU
Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee · ESPN2
Florida International at Missouri State · CBSSN
North Carolina at Syracuse · ESPN
Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN
Vanderbilt at Texas · ABC
Penn State at Ohio State · FOX
Rutgers at Illinois · NBC
Miami at SMU · ESPN
UCF at Baylor · ESPNU
West Virginia at Houston · FS1
UAB at UConn · CBSSN
Army at Air Force · CBS
Buffalo at Bowling Green · ESPN+
Arizona State at Iowa State · TNT
Louisville at Virginia Tech · The CW Network
New Mexico at UNLV
Georgia at Florida · ABC
Indiana at Maryland · CBS
Michigan State at Minnesota · BTN
Pittsburgh at Stanford · ACC Network
Notre Dame at Boston College · ESPN
Texas Tech at Kansas State · FOX
Delaware at Liberty · CBSSN
New Mexico State at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
Old Dominion at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Louisiana at South Alabama · ESPN+
Virginia at California · ESPN2
Mississippi State at Arkansas · SEC Network
Oklahoma State at Kansas · ESPN+
Central Michigan at Western Michigan · ESPNU
South Carolina at Ole Miss · ESPN
Purdue at Michigan · BTN
Arizona at Colorado · FS1
Wyoming at San Diego State · CBSSN
Kentucky at Auburn · SEC Network
Oklahoma at Tennessee · ABC
USC at Nebraska · NBC
Washington State at Oregon State · CBS
Wake Forest at Florida State · ACC Network
Georgia Tech at NC State · ESPN2
Arkansas State at Troy · ESPNU
Cincinnati at Utah · ESPN
Hawai'i at San José State · CBSSN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10).