North Texas Mean Green
7–1 · 3–1 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
In the books
WEEK 10 · 2025
50%
American title game
27%
Win the American
13%
Make the playoff
<1%
First-round bye
avg seed 11.5
How the week went: playoff odds 13% → 21% · title-game odds 50% → 70%.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves North Texas's pathYour game
…
… · ESPN2
Navy at North Texas
Your game. Beat Navy and your playoff odds are 16%; lose and they drop to <1%. A loss ends it.
Final · Navy 17–31 North TexasWish granted ✓
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ESPN2
#25 Memphis at Rice
American Athletic race: Memphis losing helps your spot in the standings; Rice visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.
Final · Memphis 38–14 RiceWent the other way ✗
Root for Rice+11.5 pp title-game odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ESPN
Tulane at UTSA
American Athletic race: Tulane losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat UTSA — their wins make your résumé stronger; you still play Tulane in week 15.
Final · Tulane 26–48 UTSAWish granted ✓
Root for UTSA+6.6 pp title-game odds
…
… · FS1
Fresno State at Boise State
Fresno State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · Fresno State 30–7 Boise StateWish granted ✓
Root for Fresno State+3.5 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN2
James Madison at Texas State
Texas State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · James Madison 52–20 Texas StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Texas State+2.7 pp playoff odds
…
… · CBSSN
UAB at UConn
UAB visits your schedule in week 12 — keep them ranked.
Final · UAB 19–38 UConnWent the other way ✗
Root for UAB+1.4 pp playoff odds
46 more games that don't move your needle
East Carolina at Temple · ESPN+
UTEP at Kennesaw State · ESPNU
Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee · ESPN2
Florida International at Missouri State · CBSSN
Marshall at Coastal Carolina · ESPN2
North Carolina at Syracuse · ESPN
Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN
Vanderbilt at Texas · ABC
Penn State at Ohio State · FOX
Rutgers at Illinois · NBC
Duke at Clemson · ACC Network
Miami at SMU · ESPN
UCF at Baylor · ESPNU
West Virginia at Houston · FS1
Army at Air Force · CBS
Buffalo at Bowling Green · ESPN+
Arizona State at Iowa State · TNT
Louisville at Virginia Tech · The CW Network
New Mexico at UNLV
Georgia at Florida · ABC
Indiana at Maryland · CBS
Michigan State at Minnesota · BTN
Pittsburgh at Stanford · ACC Network
Notre Dame at Boston College · ESPN
Texas Tech at Kansas State · FOX
Delaware at Liberty · CBSSN
New Mexico State at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
Old Dominion at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Louisiana at South Alabama · ESPN+
Virginia at California · ESPN2
Mississippi State at Arkansas · SEC Network
Oklahoma State at Kansas · ESPN+
Central Michigan at Western Michigan · ESPNU
South Carolina at Ole Miss · ESPN
Purdue at Michigan · BTN
Arizona at Colorado · FS1
Wyoming at San Diego State · CBSSN
Kentucky at Auburn · SEC Network
Oklahoma at Tennessee · ABC
USC at Nebraska · NBC
Washington State at Oregon State · CBS
Wake Forest at Florida State · ACC Network
Georgia Tech at NC State · ESPN2
Arkansas State at Troy · ESPNU
Cincinnati at Utah · ESPN
Hawai'i at San José State · CBSSN
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.