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North Texas Mean Green

10–1 · 6–1 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
In the books
WEEK 14 · 2025
97%
American title game
69%
Win the American
40%
Make the playoff
0%
First-round bye
avg seed 11.8
How the week went: playoff odds 40% → 60% · title-game odds 97% → 100%.
Playoff odds by week
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If North Texas wins out: 71% to win the American, 41% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves North Texas's path
Your game
…
… · ESPN
Temple at North Texas

Your game. Beat Temple and your playoff odds are 41%; lose and they drop to <1%. A loss ends it.

Final · Temple 25–52 North TexasWish granted ✓
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ESPNU
James Madison at Coastal Carolina

Coastal Carolina winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · James Madison 59–10 Coastal CarolinaWent the other way ✗
Root for Coastal Carolina+14.5 pp playoff odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ESPN2
#21 SMU at California

California winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · SMU 35–38 CaliforniaWish granted ✓
Root for California+3.6 pp playoff odds
…
… · CBSSN
UNLV at Nevada

Nevada winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · UNLV 42–17 NevadaWent the other way ✗
Root for Nevada+2.6 pp playoff odds
…
… · CBSSN
Kent State at Northern Illinois

Northern Illinois winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Kent State 35–31 Northern IllinoisWent the other way ✗
Root for Northern Illinois+1.8 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN+
Rice at South Florida

American Athletic race: South Florida losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Rice — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · Rice 3–52 South FloridaWent the other way ✗
Root for Rice+2.5 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPNU
Ohio at Buffalo

Ohio winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Ohio 31–26 BuffaloWish granted ✓
Root for Ohio+1.6 pp playoff odds
…
… · ACC Network
Kentucky at Louisville

Louisville winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Kentucky 0–41 LouisvilleWish granted ✓
Root for Louisville+1.3 pp playoff odds
…
… · CBSSN
San Diego State at New Mexico

San Diego State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · San Diego State 17–23 New MexicoWent the other way ✗
Root for San Diego State+1.2 pp playoff odds
58 more games that don't move your needle
Bowling Green at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan · ESPN2
Navy at Memphis · ESPN
Ole Miss at Mississippi State · ABC
Iowa at Nebraska · CBS
Utah at Kansas · ESPN
Air Force at Colorado State · FS1
Georgia at Georgia Tech · ABC
Boise State at Utah State · CBS
Texas A&M at Texas · ABC
Indiana at Purdue · NBC
Arizona at Arizona State · FOX
Clemson at South Carolina · SEC Network
Ohio State at Michigan · FOX
Miami at Pittsburgh · ABC
Houston at Baylor · TNT
Colorado at Kansas State · FS1
Iowa State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
Texas Tech at West Virginia · ESPN
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Toledo at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Ball State at Miami (OH) · CBSSN
UCF at BYU · ESPN2
UTEP at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Marshall · ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State · ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at Missouri State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Arkansas State at App State · ESPN+
Boston College at Syracuse · The CW Network
Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State · ESPN+
UL Monroe at Louisiana · ESPN+
South Alabama at Texas State · ESPN+
UAB at Tulsa · ESPN+
Missouri at Arkansas · SEC Network
LSU at Oklahoma · ABC
Vanderbilt at Tennessee · ESPN
Oregon at Washington · CBS
Wisconsin at Minnesota · FS1
Penn State at Rutgers · BTN
Wake Forest at Duke · ACC Network
Cincinnati at TCU · FOX
Kennesaw State at Liberty · CBSSN
Troy at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Army at UTSA · ESPN+
Florida State at Florida · ESPN2
Oregon State at Washington State · The CW Network
Maryland at Michigan State · FS1
Virginia Tech at Virginia · ESPN
Alabama at Auburn · ABC
UCLA at USC · NBC
Northwestern at Illinois · FOX
North Carolina at NC State · ACC Network
Charlotte at Tulane · ESPNU
Notre Dame at Stanford · ESPN
Fresno State at San José State · FS1
Wyoming at Hawai'i

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.