North Texas Mean Green
8–1 · 4–1 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
In the books
WEEK 12 · 2025
80%
American title game
40%
Win the American
25%
Make the playoff
0%
First-round bye
avg seed 11.6
How the week went: playoff odds 25% → 35% · title-game odds 80% → 89%.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves North Texas's pathYour game
…
… · ESPN+
North Texas at UAB
Your game. Beat UAB and your playoff odds are 28%; lose and they drop to 1%.
Final · North Texas 53–24 UABWish granted ✓
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ESPN2
#24 South Florida at Navy
You beat Navy — their wins make your résumé stronger.
Final · South Florida 38–41 NavyWish granted ✓
Root for Navy+5.6 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN+
App State at James Madison
App State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · App State 10–58 James MadisonWent the other way ✗
Root for App State+5.4 pp playoff odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ESPN+
Florida Atlantic at Tulane
American Athletic race: Tulane losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play Tulane in week 15.
Final · Florida Atlantic 24–35 TulaneWent the other way ✗
Root for Florida Atlantic+3.6 pp title-game odds
…
… · CBSSN
Boise State at San Diego State
San Diego State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · Boise State 7–17 San Diego StateWish granted ✓
Root for San Diego State+2.2 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPNU
Memphis at East Carolina
American Athletic race: Memphis losing helps your spot in the standings.
Final · Memphis 27–31 East CarolinaWish granted ✓
Root for East Carolina+3.3 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN
NC State at #15 Miami
Miami winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · NC State 7–41 MiamiWish granted ✓
Root for Miami+2.0 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN2
#19 Virginia at Duke
Duke winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · Virginia 34–17 DukeWent the other way ✗
Root for Duke+1.7 pp playoff odds
50 more games that don't move your needle
Kent State at Akron · ESPNU
Ohio at Western Michigan · ESPN2
Buffalo at Central Michigan · CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) · ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion · ESPN
Clemson at Louisville · ESPN
Minnesota at Oregon · FOX
South Carolina at Texas A&M · ESPN
Wisconsin at Indiana · BTN
Michigan at Northwestern · FOX
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh · ABC
Arizona at Cincinnati · FS1
Kansas State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
Air Force at UConn · CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte · ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Ball State · ESPN+
Arkansas at LSU · SEC Network
Oregon State at Tulsa · The CW Network
West Virginia at Arizona State · truTV
Marshall at Georgia State · ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State · ESPN+
Colorado State at New Mexico
Oklahoma at Alabama · ABC
Penn State at Michigan State · CBS
Maryland at Illinois · FS1
Iowa at USC · BTN
Georgia Tech at Boston College · ACC Network
UCF at Texas Tech · FOX
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
San José State at Nevada · CBSSN
South Alabama at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee · SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest · The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International · ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
Florida at Ole Miss · ESPN
Purdue at Washington · FS1
Utah at Baylor · ESPN2
Delaware at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Utah State at UNLV · CBSSN
Texas at Georgia · ABC
UCLA at Ohio State · NBC
Virginia Tech at Florida State · ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State · ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State · The CW Network
TCU at BYU · ESPN
Wyoming at Fresno State · FS1
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.