The American Athletic race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 12 · 2025
6 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 12; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Navy | 5–1 | 7–2 | 5.5–2.5 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
 #24South Florida | 4–1 | 7–2 | 6.6–1.4 | 75% | 44% | 33% |
 North Texas | 4–1 | 8–1 | 6.8–1.2 | 80% | 40% | 25% |
 Tulane | 4–1 | 7–2 | 6.6–1.4 | 27% | 8% | 1% |
 East Carolina | 4–1 | 6–3 | 5.9–2.1 | 10% | 4% | 2% |
 Memphis | 4–2 | 8–2 | 5.3–2.7 | 4% | 2% | 1% |
 Army | 3–3 | 5–4 | 4.4–3.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Florida Atlantic | 3–3 | 4–5 | 3.3–4.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Temple | 3–3 | 5–5 | 3.3–4.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 UTSA | 2–3 | 4–5 | 3.8–4.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Rice | 2–4 | 5–5 | 2.1–5.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 UAB | 1–4 | 3–6 | 1.8–6.2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Charlotte | 0–6 | 1–8 | 0.2–7.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Tulsa | 0–6 | 2–7 | 0.4–7.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.