The American Athletic race
14 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 11 · 2025
8 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 11; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Navy | 5–1 | 7–1 | 5.6–2.4 | 7% | 2% | <1% |
 North Texas | 4–1 | 8–1 | 6.8–1.2 | 70% | 38% | 21% |
 Memphis | 4–1 | 8–1 | 6.1–1.9 | 52% | 28% | 18% |
 South Florida | 3–1 | 6–2 | 6.2–1.8 | 45% | 22% | 14% |
 East Carolina | 3–1 | 5–3 | 5.7–2.3 | 14% | 6% | 3% |
 Tulane | 3–1 | 6–2 | 5.8–2.2 | 8% | 2% | <1% |
 Temple | 3–2 | 5–4 | 3.4–4.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 UTSA | 2–2 | 4–4 | 4.3–3.7 | 4% | 1% | <1% |
 Army | 2–3 | 4–4 | 4.2–3.8 | <1% | 0% | 0% |
 Florida Atlantic | 2–3 | 3–5 | 3.1–4.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 UAB | 1–3 | 3–5 | 2.4–5.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Rice | 1–4 | 4–5 | 1.6–6.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Charlotte | 0–5 | 1–7 | 0.2–7.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Tulsa | 0–5 | 2–6 | 0.6–7.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.