The Big 12 race
16 teams · two title-game spots
In the books
WEEK 11 · 2025
11 teams are still alive for the two title-game spots.
Most likely championship game
how often each matchup comes up in the simsStandings & projections
records entering week 11; projections from the remaining schedule| Team | Conf | Overall | Proj. final | Title game | Champ | Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 #7BYU | 5–0 | 8–0 | 7.2–1.8 | 58% | 18% | 49% |
 #8Texas Tech | 5–1 | 8–1 | 7.7–1.3 | 84% | 58% | 69% |
 Cincinnati | 5–1 | 7–2 | 6.3–2.7 | 13% | 3% | 2% |
 #13Utah | 4–2 | 7–2 | 6.5–2.5 | 26% | 16% | 47% |
 Arizona State | 4–2 | 6–3 | 6.2–2.8 | 12% | 3% | 2% |
 Houston | 4–2 | 7–2 | 4.8–4.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 TCU | 3–2 | 6–2 | 5.6–3.4 | 7% | 2% | 3% |
 Baylor | 3–3 | 5–4 | 4.4–4.6 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Kansas State | 3–3 | 4–5 | 5.0–4.0 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Kansas | 3–3 | 5–4 | 3.9–5.1 | <1% | 0% | <1% |
 Arizona | 2–3 | 5–3 | 3.9–5.1 | <1% | <1% | <1% |
 Iowa State | 2–4 | 5–4 | 3.8–5.2 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
 UCF | 1–4 | 4–4 | 2.9–6.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Colorado | 1–5 | 3–6 | 1.9–7.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 West Virginia | 1–5 | 3–6 | 1.7–7.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
 Oklahoma State | 0–6 | 1–8 | 0.2–8.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.