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#7BYU Cougars

8–0 · 5–0 BIG 12
In the books
WEEK 11 · 2025
58%
Big 12 title game
18%
Win the Big 12
49%
Make the playoff
12%
First-round bye
avg seed 6.7
How the week went: playoff odds 49% → 30% · title-game odds 58% → 47%.
Playoff odds by week
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If BYU wins out: 35% to win the Big 12, 96% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves BYU's path
Your game
…
… · ABC
#7 BYU at #8 Texas Tech

Your game. Beat Texas Tech and your playoff odds are 74%; lose and they drop to 44%.

Final · BYU 7–29 Texas TechWent the other way ✗
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · BTN
#1 Ohio State at Purdue

Purdue winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Ohio State 34–10 PurdueWent the other way ✗
Root for Purdue+5.6 pp playoff odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · FOX
Iowa State at TCU

Big 12 race: TCU losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Iowa State — their wins make your résumé stronger; you still play TCU in week 12.

Final · Iowa State 20–17 TCUWish granted ✓
Root for Iowa State+4.6 pp title-game odds
…
… · FS1
Houston at UCF

UCF visits your schedule in week 14 — keep them ranked.

Final · Houston 30–27 UCFWent the other way ✗
Root for UCF+2.8 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN
#5 Georgia at Mississippi State

Mississippi State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Georgia 41–21 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Root for Mississippi State+2.6 pp playoff odds
…
… · ABC
LSU at #4 Alabama

LSU winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · LSU 9–20 AlabamaWent the other way ✗
Root for LSU+2.2 pp playoff odds
…
… · ESPN2
Kansas at Arizona

Big 12 race: Kansas losing helps your spot in the standings; you beat Arizona — their wins make your résumé stronger.

Final · Kansas 20–24 ArizonaWish granted ✓
Root for Arizona+3.1 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPNU
Kent State at Ball State

Ball State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Kent State 13–17 Ball StateWish granted ✓
Root for Ball State+1.6 pp playoff odds
…
… · ACC Network
Florida State at Clemson

Florida State winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Florida State 10–24 ClemsonWent the other way ✗
Root for Florida State+1.3 pp playoff odds
…
… · SEC Network
Auburn at #16 Vanderbilt

Auburn winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Auburn 38–45 VanderbiltWent the other way ✗
Root for Auburn+1.3 pp playoff odds
41 more games that don't move your needle
Massachusetts at Akron · CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Ohio · ESPN2
Northern Illinois at Toledo · ESPN2
Georgia Southern at App State · ESPN2
UTSA at South Florida · ESPN
Northwestern at USC · FOX
Tulane at Memphis · ESPN
Indiana at Penn State · FOX
SMU at Boston College · ACC Network
Colorado at West Virginia · TNT
James Madison at Marshall · ESPN2
Southern Miss at Arkansas State · ESPNU
Temple at Army · CBSSN
Missouri State at Liberty · ESPN+
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+
UAB at Rice · ESPN+
Maryland at Rutgers · FS1
Louisiana Tech at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+
Jacksonville State at UTEP · ESPN+
Charlotte at East Carolina · ESPN+
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Texas A&M at Missouri · ABC
Oregon at Iowa · CBS
Syracuse at Miami · ESPN
Duke at UConn · CBSSN
Kennesaw State at New Mexico State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
Washington at Wisconsin · BTN
Stanford at North Carolina · The CW Network
Texas State at Louisiana · ESPN+
Air Force at San José State · FS1
California at Louisville · ESPN2
Wake Forest at Virginia · ESPN
Florida at Kentucky · SEC Network
Navy at Notre Dame · NBC
Nevada at Utah State · CBSSN
Nebraska at UCLA · FOX
UNLV at Colorado State · FS1
Sam Houston at Oregon State · The CW Network
San Diego State at Hawai'i

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.